CETOP Economic Outlook Reports
22 Feb 2021
A CETOP Market Outlook conference was held on 10 February 2021, with 13 member Associations attending. At this meeting, a presentation on the CETOP market Outlook was made, which can be downloaded below. The presentation talks about the EU27, which obviously now excludes the UK but includes some ROW data:
Click here for Cetop Economic Outlook February 2021: “On the way to pre-crisis level”
Included in the meeting were short presentations given by each participating country – reflecting the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on fluid power in each country.
The presentations are available to members only (please do not publish externally) and can be downloaded here or from the Members Only pages of the BFPA website (please contact BFPA if you are unsure of your log in details).
GDP in Belgium is expected to increase from -6.7% in 2020 to +3.5% by the end of 2021 showing a recovery through the year. Most major industry sectors will bounce back this year with automotive and transportation expected to show the highest growth. Q1-Q3 2020/2019 fluid power sales were reported as follows: hydraulics -17.08%, pneumatics -12.86%.
To download the presentation from Belgium, click here
GDP in the Czech Republic fell some 6.9% in 2020 due to Covid-19 but is forecast to recover to +3.1% by the end of 2021. Interestingly, by the end of the year, production output had risen for motor vehicles, trailers (3.6 %), chemicals and chemical products (12.0 %), and other non-metallic mineral products (8.0 %), but production decreased for machinery and equipment (-4.5 %), beverages (-19.9 %), and repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-8.2 %). No fluid power statistics were presented.
To download the presentation from Czech Republic, click here
GDP in France is likely to be –8.3% in 2020 with a rebound expected to +5.6% in 2021 following recovery from the pandemic. Markets driving fluid power demand are agricultural machinery and food an packing. As regards fluid power, 2020/2019 sales indicate: hydraulics -20%, pneumatics -13%.
To download the presentation from France, click here
GDP in 2020 fell by 6.0% with the 2021 forecast to be +4.2%. There were winners and losers in major end user industries for fluid power with agricultural machinery showing the strongest demand in 2020 and mining and process plant the least (see the presentation for an interesting chart).
For fluid power, the 2020 results for shipments from the VDMA indicate: 2020/2019: hydraulics -14%, pneumatics -7%.
To download the presentation from Germany, click here
GDP in Italy fell by -8.8% in 2020, but by the end of 2021 this should have recovered to +4.4%. Looking at the fluid power market, Assofluid’s estimates for the end of the year 2020/2019 indicate: hydraulics -18.8%, pneumatics -10.3%.
To download the presentation from Italy, click here
GDP in the Netherlands fell by 3.9% in 2020 due to Covid-19 but should bounce back to +2.7% in 2021. Supply chains are under pressure with long delivery times continuing to be a problem. FEDA only collect fluid power data every six months and therefore no figures were available.
To download the presentation from Netherlands, click here
The Norwegian fluid power market is highly dependent on oil and gas markets which are in turn driven by oil prices, which hit a low in May 2020 and impacted the economy hugely. Like most other countries, Norway saw a huge fall in the PMI in 2020 but with the oil price now similar to pre-Covid levels and Government grants supporting the industry the hope is 2021 will recover. Quarterly order intake date for fluid power from HPF in Norway shows hydraulics more negatively affected than pneumatics in 2020 (see charts for details).
To download the presentation from Norway, click here
As usual the presentation from Poland was more on general economic data but apparently GDP fell by some 1.5% in 2020 which was better than most other countries reported, and IOP by the end of 2020 was +11.2%, recovered from the low point of around -25.0% in mid-2020 so a good recovery. Poland is strongly linked to the German market and suffered from the downturn in automotive.
To download the presentation from Poland, click here
Spain was hit hard by Covid reporting a 9.0% fall in GDP in 2020, a 6.1% drop in industrial production and a massive increase in the unemployment levels to 16%.
As regards fluid power, 2020/2019 sales indicate: hydraulics -11%, pneumatics -6%
To download the presentation from Spain, click here
GDP growth in Sweden was on the up by the end of 2020 with +4.7% for Q3,20 compared to Q2, 20, and other macro-economic indicators gong in the right direction. Fluid power from SFMA in Sweden for the first three quarters of 2020 (i.e. Q1toQ3 2020 vs Q1toQ3 2019) shows: hydraulics -22%.
To download the presentation from Sweden, click here
GDP in Switzerland fell by around -3.3% in 2020 due to COVID-19, with a depressed automotive market impacting on industry. For fluid power for 2020, the 2020/2019 results were as follows for shipments: hydraulics -18.0%, pneumatics: -14.0%.
To download the presentation from Switzerland, click here
GDP in Turkey recovered from the -9.9% seen in Q2 back up to +6.7% in Q3 which was good news, this reflected in a swift uptick in PMI in the same period. Interestingly, the fluid power market demand in Turkey was reported as being pretty much flat i.e. 0% change by the end of 2020 compared to 2019 (in early 2020 it had been expected to fall by around -12% in 2020).
To download the presentation from Turkey, click here
GDP in the UK contracted by some 10% in 2020 due to COVID-19 with Q1 and Q2 the most affected. The UK IOP also fell by 8.5% last year. Fluid power data from BFPA’s monthly surveys for January to November 2020/2019 indicated: hydraulics -28%, pneumatics: -5%.
To download the presentation from the UK, click here
All the above presentations are available in the Members Only pages of our website www.bfpa.co.uk For more information about the CETOP economic information and surveys please contact Sarah Gardner at the BFPA on firstname.lastname@example.org